The time has come to consider Southern BC as separate province. The economics of southern BC are dramatically different than the north, the island or the lower mainland. It has very different needs than the other regions.
I would propose splitting the province roughly along the lines of the Health Authorities. This would mean the new Southern Interior province would run from Manning Park to the Rockies and have the Thompson Nicola Regional District as the northern boundary, though Clinton and area would move into the north.
This new province would have a population of about 650 000. In the context of Canada this is on the low end, only PEI and NFLD having a smaller population. In 15 years, by about 2023, the population will pass that of New Brunswick and by the middle of the 21st century the population will be in the range of Nova Scotia, Manitoba and Saskatchewan.
Southern BC would be a strongly resource based economy with forestry and mining being core. It would also have a strong agricultural sector and a strong tourism sector. Currently the economics are politically defined by the lower mainland.
The province would boast about a dozen world class ski resorts. It would also be home to the bulk of the wine industry.
The region also has two universities and a quickly growing knowledge sector.
The way BC is governed means that it would not take a lot to divide the provincial civil service as it already has a strongly regional nature.
The new legislature of Southern BC would likely have about 50 MLAs instead of the roughly 12 they have at the moment. The average MLA would represent 12 000 people. This means that there will more people elected from the rural communities of the region. Merritt and area would elect an MLA, so to would the Gold Trail area.
Even though Kelowna is the big fish in the new province, it is not overly dominant. Kelowna represents about a quarter of the population. Kamloops alone is a strong counter balance outside of the Okanagan.
Nationally this new province would have 6 Senators and 8 MPs. Right now the area has 6 MPs and and no senators tied to the area.
Wednesday, January 30, 2008
Thursday, January 24, 2008
Hwy 37 Power
I was alerted to an article on the Terrace Standard about the Hwy 37 power issue. With the shelving of the Galore Creek project, a large part of the financing for the extension of the grid fell away. It looked like the power line would not go ahead. But the other companies in the region have stepped up and offered to put money in the development stages of the project.
I am happy to see that the idea is not dead and is being pushed. I would like to see the construction of the line all the way to Yukon and Alaska and connect them to the grid. There are huge green power sources in the north and the line would make them possible.
With a power line in place there are so many options possible for development along the hwy 37 corridor that would benefit all of BC. There are numerous mines that only need access to power to make them feasible. It makes sense to build this piece of infrastructure. I believe that the business case is good enough that it could be built privately. If I had the resources to spend time on developing it as a business, I would be pounding the pavement to get the line built as far as Alaska. I am sure that Alaska and Yukon would offer to cover some of the costs. One can make a lot of money wheeling power.
I would look at going big right away, a 500 Kv line with the ability to twin if needed. There is the power out there. If you build it, they will come.
I think I might spend some time fleshing out what it would cost to build.
I am happy to see that the idea is not dead and is being pushed. I would like to see the construction of the line all the way to Yukon and Alaska and connect them to the grid. There are huge green power sources in the north and the line would make them possible.
With a power line in place there are so many options possible for development along the hwy 37 corridor that would benefit all of BC. There are numerous mines that only need access to power to make them feasible. It makes sense to build this piece of infrastructure. I believe that the business case is good enough that it could be built privately. If I had the resources to spend time on developing it as a business, I would be pounding the pavement to get the line built as far as Alaska. I am sure that Alaska and Yukon would offer to cover some of the costs. One can make a lot of money wheeling power.
I would look at going big right away, a 500 Kv line with the ability to twin if needed. There is the power out there. If you build it, they will come.
I think I might spend some time fleshing out what it would cost to build.
Thursday, December 6, 2007
Rising dollar and slumping resource sector
Times are going to be getting tougher for the rural communities of BC. With the suspension of the Galore Creek project last week and announcements of more layoffs in forestry Canfor and Tolko, things are not looking good.
The coastal forest industry has been in bad way for some years now - much of it self inflicted in my opinion - the interior has been doing fine. But with the dollar rising and falling lumber prices, even the state of the art mills in the interior are going to have trouble keeping in the black.
A few years ago lumber prices were in the high 300 US dollar range, now they are at $250 to $260 US. At the same time our dollar has gone from $0.65 to about parity. In Canadian dollar terms this means the price has gone from close to $600 to less than half. I know that a lot of the mills can operate at a profit at around $300 CDN, but we are under that.
The dollar has also made a lot of the new mine projects in development become unrealistic. Whereas three years ago one could have seen 20 or so mines open over the decade to come, now I suspect we will see only a handful. Galore Creek was one of the largest development projects underway anywhere in the world. NovaGold and TeckCominco sunk a lot of money into that whole. The development was core to the highway #37 electrification. I wonder now if that will be going ahead.
With the loss of more forestry jobs and no new mining jobs, the demographic trend is going to continue to be towards the cities and away from the small towns. The trend has been slowed in some areas over the last few years because the forest industry was doing well in the interior and mineral exploration was booming, but with those gone I see towns declining further.
Some things I wonder about:
If the mills slow down, what is going to happen to all the beetle wood?
What happens to land use decision making if the population falls further?
What value is the land to First Nations if there is a general rural economic collapse?
The coastal forest industry has been in bad way for some years now - much of it self inflicted in my opinion - the interior has been doing fine. But with the dollar rising and falling lumber prices, even the state of the art mills in the interior are going to have trouble keeping in the black.
A few years ago lumber prices were in the high 300 US dollar range, now they are at $250 to $260 US. At the same time our dollar has gone from $0.65 to about parity. In Canadian dollar terms this means the price has gone from close to $600 to less than half. I know that a lot of the mills can operate at a profit at around $300 CDN, but we are under that.
The dollar has also made a lot of the new mine projects in development become unrealistic. Whereas three years ago one could have seen 20 or so mines open over the decade to come, now I suspect we will see only a handful. Galore Creek was one of the largest development projects underway anywhere in the world. NovaGold and TeckCominco sunk a lot of money into that whole. The development was core to the highway #37 electrification. I wonder now if that will be going ahead.
With the loss of more forestry jobs and no new mining jobs, the demographic trend is going to continue to be towards the cities and away from the small towns. The trend has been slowed in some areas over the last few years because the forest industry was doing well in the interior and mineral exploration was booming, but with those gone I see towns declining further.
Some things I wonder about:
If the mills slow down, what is going to happen to all the beetle wood?
What happens to land use decision making if the population falls further?
What value is the land to First Nations if there is a general rural economic collapse?
Thursday, September 27, 2007
Drawing Knowledge Workers to Rural BC
The technology exists now so that it is possible for someone to live almost anywhere and be a knowledge worker. Given this state of affairs, what is it that rural communities in BC can do to attract these people?
The starting point has to be showing people what the small town advantages are:
All in all, there is a lot these communities have going for them. What they do not have are the amenities of the big city.
There are many things you can not get in a rural community, but as I look at the list above I can see that the amount of time I use any of them is actually very limited. I would love to spend more time in high end restaurants, but that costs a lot of money and being in Victoria the selection is not that good to start with. I have seen very little live music.
So the allure of the urban amenities are things that most people with children simply do not make a lot of use of.
As to the shopping, from a rural community in BC it is not that long a trip to get to an urban centre to shop there.
But how do you sell these advantages?
I have thought that various small towns should do innovative marketing campaigns to make people aware of them. One idea I had was to have a pickup load of fresh new apples driven down from the Fraser Canyon and then given away at the SeaBus terminal to the various commuters coming into Vancouver. You had out the apples and some info on inexpensive real estate and the wonders of a place like Lytton or Lillooet. You have the mayors there to hand out the apples. Get people to notice the town, get them to build up an image of Arcadia in their minds. Sell the dreams people have of getting out of the urban rat race. You can also sell people on the dream of financial freedom.
The biggest single debt anyone will have is their house. Buying one in Victoria will set you back around $500 000. Buying a house in a small town will run you about 1/3 that price for more house. You can pay out the house in rural BC in 10 years and be living debt free. You can afford a lot more to do in your life once you no longer have to pay for housing.
The starting point has to be showing people what the small town advantages are:
- Lower housing costs
- Safer feeling community
- Better outdoor rec
- Closer connection to the natural world
- Feeling of community
- Less pollution
All in all, there is a lot these communities have going for them. What they do not have are the amenities of the big city.
- Movie theatres
- High end foods
- Good restaurants
- Live music
- Cultural institutions
- Universities
- Sports facilities
- Better shopping
There are many things you can not get in a rural community, but as I look at the list above I can see that the amount of time I use any of them is actually very limited. I would love to spend more time in high end restaurants, but that costs a lot of money and being in Victoria the selection is not that good to start with. I have seen very little live music.
So the allure of the urban amenities are things that most people with children simply do not make a lot of use of.
As to the shopping, from a rural community in BC it is not that long a trip to get to an urban centre to shop there.
But how do you sell these advantages?
I have thought that various small towns should do innovative marketing campaigns to make people aware of them. One idea I had was to have a pickup load of fresh new apples driven down from the Fraser Canyon and then given away at the SeaBus terminal to the various commuters coming into Vancouver. You had out the apples and some info on inexpensive real estate and the wonders of a place like Lytton or Lillooet. You have the mayors there to hand out the apples. Get people to notice the town, get them to build up an image of Arcadia in their minds. Sell the dreams people have of getting out of the urban rat race. You can also sell people on the dream of financial freedom.
The biggest single debt anyone will have is their house. Buying one in Victoria will set you back around $500 000. Buying a house in a small town will run you about 1/3 that price for more house. You can pay out the house in rural BC in 10 years and be living debt free. You can afford a lot more to do in your life once you no longer have to pay for housing.
Monday, August 20, 2007
From the Citizen in PG
Electoral reform unites rural B.C.
(Opinion) Friday, 17 August 2007, 23:01 PST
by city editor Randall Heidt
You know something is a bad idea when every politician in northern B.C. -- regardless whether they are NDP, Liberal, municipal or regional -- unanimously speaks out against it.
But that's what happened when The Citizen talked with mayors, MLAs and regional district directors about the proposed changes in a B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission report that says the Prince George area and others should lose a seat in the legislative assembly.
"I'm absolutely and totally appalled," Prince George Mayor Colin Kinsley said in a Citizen story Friday.
That was pretty much the message from everyone else as well.
The report suggests the Northern Interior, Central Interior and the Kootenays should each lose one MLA, and the lost rural seats are to be redistributed among urban centres where population growth has occurred. There would also be the addition of two urban seats in Lower Mainland metropolitan centres.
We understand if population growth in the Lower Mainland necessitates the addition of seats, but it shouldn't be done at the expense of rural B.C.
The move would see the riding of Prince George-Omineca disappear. Most of its territory would be included in a new Bulkley-Nechako electoral district. A seat would also be lost in the Cariboo area.
In other words, if you think the North gets less attention than the ugly girl behind Paris Hilton on the red carpet, it's only going to get worse.
But you can do something about it.
The proposed changes will be discussed at a public hearing Sept. 5 from 6:30 to 9:30 p.m. at the Coast Inn of the North. Go and make your voice heard. Or, log on to the B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission website at http://www.bc-ebc.ca/ and download a participation form. You may also phone the commission's office at (604) 660-1203.
Just do something.
The squeaky wheel is going to get the grease on this one, so let's make sure the North makes such an annoying amount of noise that it cannot be ignored.
(Opinion) Friday, 17 August 2007, 23:01 PST
by city editor Randall Heidt
You know something is a bad idea when every politician in northern B.C. -- regardless whether they are NDP, Liberal, municipal or regional -- unanimously speaks out against it.
But that's what happened when The Citizen talked with mayors, MLAs and regional district directors about the proposed changes in a B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission report that says the Prince George area and others should lose a seat in the legislative assembly.
"I'm absolutely and totally appalled," Prince George Mayor Colin Kinsley said in a Citizen story Friday.
That was pretty much the message from everyone else as well.
The report suggests the Northern Interior, Central Interior and the Kootenays should each lose one MLA, and the lost rural seats are to be redistributed among urban centres where population growth has occurred. There would also be the addition of two urban seats in Lower Mainland metropolitan centres.
We understand if population growth in the Lower Mainland necessitates the addition of seats, but it shouldn't be done at the expense of rural B.C.
The move would see the riding of Prince George-Omineca disappear. Most of its territory would be included in a new Bulkley-Nechako electoral district. A seat would also be lost in the Cariboo area.
In other words, if you think the North gets less attention than the ugly girl behind Paris Hilton on the red carpet, it's only going to get worse.
But you can do something about it.
The proposed changes will be discussed at a public hearing Sept. 5 from 6:30 to 9:30 p.m. at the Coast Inn of the North. Go and make your voice heard. Or, log on to the B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission website at http://www.bc-ebc.ca/ and download a participation form. You may also phone the commission's office at (604) 660-1203.
Just do something.
The squeaky wheel is going to get the grease on this one, so let's make sure the North makes such an annoying amount of noise that it cannot be ignored.
Thursday, August 16, 2007
From the Prince George Citizen
City should lose one of its MLAs, report suggests |  | (0) |  |  |
| (News) Thursday, 16 August 2007, 00:00 PST | |
| by Citizen staff | |
Prince George will be represented by only two ridings, if suggestions in a report released Wednesday the B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission are implemented. "The Central North currently has five electoral districts," the commission says in a summary from the report. "Three originate in Prince George, splitting the city among them and stretching far to the north, northwest and southwest. "The commission has concluded that Prince George should be divided between only two electoral districts." The proposed changes will be discussed at a public hearing Sept. 5 from 6:30 to 9:30 p.m. in the Coast Inn of the North. Prince George currently is split among the Prince George North, Prince George-Omineca and Prince George-Mount Robson ridings. Each includes a portion of the city, but also a large area of the surrounding region. In its report, the commission calls for a Prince George urban riding that includes most of the city and a Fraser-Fort George riding that includes a portion of the city's outskirts. The riding of Prince George-Omineca would disappear, and most of its territory would be included in a new Bulkley-Nechako electoral district, which would follow the boundaries of the Bulkley-Nechako regional district. "As B.C.'s largest city north of Kamloops, Prince George has many urban economic, social and cultural issues that would benefit from an MLA being able to focus on these community interests," the commission said. "The commission is proposing a new urban electoral district be created completely within the City of Prince George. "The proposed electoral district of Prince George comprises the downtown area of the City of Prince George. The Fraser and Nechako rivers form its eastern and northern boundaries, respectively. UNBC and Highway 16 form part of the western boundary." The commission has also proposed that the new Fraser-Fort George electoral district include the remainder of Prince George. "Its outer boundaries will correspond exactly to the Fraser-Fort George Regional district," the commission said. People wanting to participate in the hearing Sept. 5 may download a PDF version of application and mail it to the commission's office at Suite 601, 700 West Georgia St., Vancouver, BC V7Y 1B6 or faxing it to (604) 660-1207 (toll free 1-877-660-1207). You may also phone the commission's office at (604) 660-1203. If you're unable to register in advance, attend anyway. The commission says it will make every effort to accommodate everyone who wants to speak, after the pre-registered scheduled participants have been heard. Elsewhere in its report, the independent panel has recommended adding two new seats in the B.C. legislature, bringing the total number of MLA's to 81 from 79. The preliminary report of the three-member B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission calls for four new ridings in the Vancouver region and one new one in the Okanagan. At the same time, the Cariboo-Thompson, Columbia-Kootenay regions, like the North, would each lose a riding. The commission was also asked to draw proposed electoral boundaries under the single transferable vote system in case the system is approved in a referendum set for 2009. Under STV, in which voters can select more than one MLA in each riding, there would be 20 ridings, containing from two to six MLA's in each electoral district. A round of 27 public meetings to discuss the preliminary report is set to begin with the one in Prince George Sept. 5 and the panel will submit a final report to the legislature in mid-February.) |
From the Terrace Standard
Liberals would drop one seat
Aug 15 2007
THE LIBERAL party would lose one seat if the redistribution of northwest ridings takes place as proposed by the B.C. Electoral Boundaries Commission.
Currently the North Coast and Skeena ridings are held by the NDP and the Bulkley Valley-Stikine and Prince George-Omineca ridings are held by the Liberals.
The proposal would keep the North Coast riding name but take parts of it and add it to the new Skeena-Stikine riding.
Most of the voters to be added are in the Nass Valley and Stewart which cast 601 ballots for current North Coast NDP MLA Gary Coons and just 131 for Liberal Bill Belsey in the 2005 provincial election.
If that spread stayed the same, it would help current Skeena NDP MLA Robin Austin who topped Liberal Roger Harris by 359 votes in the 2005 election.
Also helping Austin would be the Hazeltons which could also be part of the new Skeena-Stikine riding.
That area posted 1043 votes for NDPer Doug Donaldson in 2005 compared to 243 for Liberal winner Dennis MacKay.
Heading into Smithers and then on to Vanderhoof for a riding to be called Bulkley-Nechako, the Liberals have a lot of support and would continue to beat the NDP provided current voting patterns stayed the same.
In any event, the loss of a northern seat wouldn't hurt the Liberals oveall if its current pattern of winning in more urban areas continues
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