May 2013 election in rural BC

I consider the following 16 ridings to be the rural ridings in BC.  

• Boundary-Similkameen
• Cariboo North - won by Bob Simpson in 2009 as a New Democrat but he was defeated in 2013 as an independent
• Cariboo-Chilcotin - round three of Donna Barnett (Liberal) versus Charley Wyse (NDP)
• Columbia River-Revelstoke
• Fraser-Nicola - won by Harry Lali NDP in 2009, defeated by Jackie Teggart Liberal in 2013
• Kootenay East - First two person in BC since 1991
• Kootenay West
• Nechako Lakes
• Nelson-Creston
• North Coast
• North Island
• Peace River North - a close race between Pat Pimm Liberal and Arthur Hadland in 2009 turned into a blow out for Pat Pimm in the rematch this year
• Peace River South - best BC Conservative result in BC since 1979
• Shuswap
• Skeena
• Stikine

The split in seats was nine Liber and seven NDP which is the reverse of 2009

Overall party results

Elect Liberal   %      NDP    %     Green   %     BCCP    %    Others    % 

2013  101,898 43.72  91,889 39.43  11,953  5.13  12,993  5.57  14,330  6.15 

2009   92,741 41.23 100,831 44.82  16,167  7.19   9,558  4.25   4,533  2.02

Change +9,157 +2.49  -8,942 -5.39  -4,214 -2.06  +3,435 +1.32  +9,797 +4.13 

The NDP in 2009 did better in these 16 ridings than it did province wide, in 2013 it did worse than the provincial average.

Peace River North

Elect  Liberal   %      NDP   %    Green    %    BCCP    %    Others   % 

2013    7,905  58.94  1,319  9.84      0   0.00   900   6.71   3,287 24.51

2009    3,992  42.91  1,293 13.90  1,010  10.86     0   0.00   2,957 31.78

Change +3,913 +16.03    +26 -4.06 -1,010 -10.86  +900  +6.71    +330 -7.27

Interesting in this race is that in 2009 Arthur Hadland out of nowhere managed to be a competitive second.  In 2013 he was smoked by Liberal Pat Pimm.   Peace River North saw a dramatic increase in voter turnout, a total of 4,107 more votes than in 2009

Peace River South

Elect  Liberal   %      NDP   %     Green   %     BCCP    %    Others   % 

2013    4,373  46.73  1,988 21.24      0   0.00  2,546  27.21     451  4.82

2009    4,801  62.72  2,057 26.87    553   7.22      0   0.00     220  2.87

Change   -428 -15.99    -69 -5.63   -553  -7.22 +2,546 +27.21    +231 +1.95

What is interesting in this race is the rise of the BC Conservatives.   This is their only second place result in 2013 and their highest percentage of the vote in any race since 1979.

Fraser Nicola

Elect  Liberal   %      NDP   %     Green   %     BCCP    %    Others   % 

2013    6,002  44.14  5,388 39.62  1,314   9.66    895  6.58       0   0.00

2009    5,830  42.46  6,703 48.82    891   6.49      0  0.00     223   1.62  

Change   +272  +1.68 -1,315 -9.20   +423  +3.17   +895 +6.58    -223  -1.62

This is a race some have pointed to as an example of where the NDP could have won if there was no Green candidate, but that does not ring true for me.   The Greens only gained 423 votes while the NDP lost 1,315 votes and that in the face of a right wing split of the vote.   The combined NDP and Green vote in 2009 was 55.31% of the vote but only 49.28% in 2013.

Skeena

Elect  Liberal   %      NDP   %     Green   %     BCCP    %    Others    % 

2013    5,087  43.27  5,609 47.71      0   0.00    797  6.78     263   2.24

2009    4,328  37.26  5,865 50.49    467   4.02    893  7.69       0   0.00

Change   +759  +6.01   -256 -2.78   -467  -4.02    -96 -0.91    +263  +2.24

I am very surprised to see this race end up so close between the NDP and Liberals.  This has gone from a safe NDP riding to one that looks like a marginal seat now.